Week 14 - Thursday

'92 Cowboys vs. '85 Chicago

Tonight's matchup is just the first of many important ones of the season. It may be the last chance either team has at playoffs. Despite Dallas' poor performance all year, a remote wildcard probability exists for them if they win tonight and every game after it.

With Chicago recently dropping to a 7-5 record, a loss tonight will put them in jeopardy of falling behind the Lions in the NFC North, should Detroit win against Minnesota. Both teams are 50% against NFC opponents , but Chicago fares just slightly better at home (4-2) than Dallas does away (3-3).

Without further ado, let's tune into the action...

The Bears took the opening kickoff at Soldier Field, and after just 1 first down, is forced to punt to Dallas. Aikman almost immediately came up with a big toss to Martin to quickly get in Bears territory. But several penalties later, the Cowboys settle for a Novacek FG to get the 1st points of the game.

At this point, both teams hit stalemate for a while, with the Bears battling tough field position and the Cowboys just struggling for complete passes. By the 2nd quarter, the Bears would hit enemy territory after Payton took a short screen throw 30 yards, but penalties would put them out of FG range.

Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton both pick up some big plays, but after Chicago punts instead of attempting a 50-yard field goal, the Cowboys go to the half 6-0 after Dallas puts together a great drive with their remaining timeouts.

With Dallas receiving, things looked bad for the Bears, but on 4th & 1 they got a break from a good punt return. But the Cowboys defense remained on task, and it would be the Cowboys coming up with another TD on a 44 yard throw to Johnston.

On the next drive, the Bears would move to the red zone, but on a 4th & 1 play, McMahon's throw would be intercepted in the end zone. The Bears D held Dallas again, but by the time Chicago got the ball, it was 4th quarter and still a 2 score game.

Chicago would never see the end zone, and Dallas deal another embarrassing loss to this historic Bears team, 15-0. With that, the playoff picture continues to remain unpredictable, even as just 3 more weeks of football remain after this.

The Bears had just 229 yards on the day, split between pass and rush, while Dallas broke 300. Aikman hit 2/3 of his 27 targets. Chicago's defense had 5 sacks on the day, but it clearly wasn't enough to slow Aikman down.

Statistics and Leaders

With all teams having 12 games under their belt, now is a good time to take a look at "3rd quarter' season leaders to see how teams are holding up. I didn't have time to squeeze this in last week but it helps identify how teams are trending.

AFC

In the AFC, Csonka's leads rushers with 5.0 yards/carry and 1070 yards total. Franco Harris and Maroney tie for 2nd place rushing average with 4.7 y/c, but only Thurman Thomas and Arian Foster have also broken 1,000 yards. Jamal Lewis looks set to do so with 918 yards so far on the season.

Thurman Thomas leads all purpose yards at 1416, showing his unmatched versatility over far beyond every other player. Arian Foster leads the AFC in rushing TD's however, with 12 so far, averaging 1 per game.

On the receiving side, Brown for the Bengals just edges out Maynard for NYJ with 21.5 yards average per catch. Only Maynard, however, remains in a league of his own with 1216 total receiving yards. Jacksonville's J. Smith is in 2nd place with 1159 yards. Welker, with far fewer yards at 863, still leads for # of receptions at an astonishing 81, as one of Brady's clear go-to guys. For scoring, no receiver has more than 8 TD's, a tie share by Maynard and Brown.

Looking at QB's, Brady still leads with a 90.0 rating, with Jim Kelly trailing with an 85.2.  Brady also leads in yardage, being 1 of just 2 passers in the AFC to have broken 3,000 yards already. Morrall for the Colts is 2nd, but his 24 TD's currently puts him over Brady's 20 and a league leader. Both QB's trail in completion % to Houston's Schaub with 63.8%

On special teams, Oakland's Hart is the leading kick returner, averaging over 36.8 yards/return. For punt returners, Denver's Gordon leads with 17.7 yards/return average, showing how much tougher it is to take punts anywhere against these defenses. While no kicker remains 100% on Field Goals, Gostkowski remains king, having hit 95% of his 21 attempts.

On Defense, sacks and interceptions look much the same as they did before, with the Chiefs chewing up 3 of the top 5 spots for INT's and Pittsburgh's presence in sacks being felt. However, Vrabel still leads with 11 for the season and the Jaguars' Brackens is in 2nd place with 9.

New England is currently running the top offense, edging close to 4,500 yards on the season. Only the Colts trail by 19 yards. Pittsburgh takes top defense honors overall, including being #1 against the rush and #2 in rushing offense. Miami still leads rushing offense far and above at over 2,683 yards - 600 more than Pittsburgh. The Bengals have the top pass defense and the Bills follow. The Chiefs, despite several INT's, come in at 5th by allowing 178 yards / game.

Despite their latest blowout, TN's defense has still allowed the fewest points against it, while NE remains the top scoring team above the Dolphins. Perhaps Miami scores so much because they are the only team remaining in the league with a turnover margin over 1, at 1.9  Despite having coughed up possession 37 times, they've taken the ball from teams an astonishing 60 times. Teams better pray they don't make the playoffs, where turnovers cost their most.

NFC

The Rams' McCutcheon has had a big second half this season, and currently bests Jim Taylor for yards/carry at 5.8, also making him the league leader in this category. Barry Sanders remains the league's top leading rusher with 1,721 yards - almost 300 yards more than his closest competitor (Jamal Anderson). Both players are the only ones in the league with over 300 carries.

Sanders leads all purpose yards with just shy of 2,000, a feat far above Thurman Thomas' AFC efforts. His 12 TD's, like Thurman's, only puts him in a 3rd place spot under Jamal Anderson's league high of 14 and Jim Taylor's 13.

On the receiving side, Atlanta's recent train of success likely rests on the Martin/Mathis duo, which takes the top 2 spots for average yards / per catch at 19.3 and 18.3, respectively. Mathis also leads total yards at 1,246, putting him #1 in the league as well. Keyshawn Johnson's 72 receptions just bump out Fitzgerald's 69 to give him top honors in the NFC there. Mathis, of course, sits at 3rd place, showing why Atlanta has been so tough to beat. Keyshawn Johnson's 12 TDs' still put him as the top scoring receiver.

For QB's, despite his latest efforts failing to put W's on the board, Brees's 67% accuracy is unmatched in the league, and his 94.8 rating puts him ahead of the AFC's WonderBrady. In fact, Carson Palmer and Brad Johnson also have ratings higher than 90. Only Brad Johnson leads passing yards and TD's for the NFC, however. His 3,148 yards is on par with Brady, as do his 21 TD's.

Atlanta's offense, having already broken 4,600 yards on the year, leads the league above the Patriots and any other contenders. The Rams' 2,110 combined rushing yards is best in the NFC but the Buccs 269 pass yards / game is a high.

For special teams, Arizona's Johnson is the NFC's leading kick returner, averaging 32 yards / return. Dallas' Martin remains the leader on Punt Returns with a 17.9 average to lead the league as well. Chicago's Butler remains the only perfect FG kicker in the league on 16 attempts.

On defense, the Vikings' Crause has 10 INT's but Youngblood of the Rams still leads the league with 15 sacks. The Packers' ability to hold teams to 236 yards / game on average, compared to Pittsburgh's 178, still puts them in the top of the NFC. This is due mostly in part to their pass defense holding teams to just 138 yards / game on average. Lookout playoff hopefuls! The Falcons rush defense has only allowed 83 yards/game on average.

On turnovers, Arizona is the NFC king, but not by much. Their 0.8 margin just beats out the Buccs at 0.7.

MVP???

Although not completely directed by statistics, these numbers can play a role in helping identify potential MVP's. So for this reason, a final decision on league MVP won't be made until the final statistics are reviewed. In the meantime, I think it's safe to say some of the following people are in the initial pool for consideration:

QB's

• Russel Wilson - a consistent QB and team leader. Always reliable passing efforts and almost always 2nd in rushing for his team. Add to that a winning effort to help keep his team on top. Seattle's defense gives him chances and he makes the most of it. No surprise he was NFL MVP in the same year we're simulating him. Cam Newton would the closest equivalent.
• Drew Brees - despite not leading the most winning team like Brady, he's out-shined Brady in almost every category against all the top defenses in history. This is no simple feat, and his record is just as much a reflection of the intense competition in his division against 3 other great passers - Brad Johnson, Chris Chandler and Cam Newton.
• Tom Brady - Mr. Consistent. Even in their few losses, Tom's efforts always shined. He has been reliable every game, always throwing for high yardage and always putting points on the board when necessary.

Runners

• Barry Sanders - despite his team's struggles in other areas, his consistent rushing efforts have helped put the Lions closer to a winning record each week in a tough division with the '62 Packers and '85 Bears. In fact, a playoff spot may still go to the Lions over the Bears, which would be a huge effort. But it would be impossible without Sanders' work, and he looks to be on par for a 2,000 yard rushing season even against the greatest teams ever as he's already hit the 2,000 yard mark for total yardage.

I have others in mind but need to think it through; stay tuned and be sure to give me your feedback on our Facebook grou, "Haffner Sports Sims".